Saturday, December 29, 2012

What do you think...?

Below are two graphs that look like they may have something in common. The first is from Whisperer's blog. We have posted it a few times here, and it shows how a mania unfolds in a graph.

I admit I have had trouble identifying where we were on the slope, but things may be a bit clearer now.

The second is the SFH average price for Vancouver. You judge.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Welcome Back

Ben Rabidoux's Vancouver talk is up on you-tube. Most of the charts are not shown, so if you have the package you can flip through them.

Kudos to the LePoidevin Group at National Bank for getting this off the ground, and doing such a professional job with handouts, video taping etc.

For those who missed the talk.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Time for a Christmas Hiatus

Best to you and your families. Whichever side of the Housing debate you are on, I hope the year ahead is Healthy and Happy.

See you on the other side of the New Year.


Tuesday, December 11, 2012

It's all over!

May as well collect up your marbles and go home.

Scotiabank has declared it a soft landing. So nothing to worry about. No reckless lending went on, no big losses for the big 5 and the CMHC won't bankrupt us all.

Phew that's a relief!

Monday, December 10, 2012

Very sad indeed

Read this on Vancouver Condo Info blog. How a man denied entry to Canada for human rights reasons still owns 110 condos in Toronto!

How does this happen. It would seem to me the Government needs to worry a little less about the British Royal heritage and a bit more on not allowing our country to become a haven for the world's-worst people and their money. Even the Swiss have been tightening up.

Mr. Malkin, the National Post revealed in 2009, has been blocked from entering Canada by Canadian authorities who accused him of organized crime involvement. In his fight to overturn that decision, it was revealed he owns 111 condominium units in Toronto.
Canada should not be a safe haven for people who do this type of crime. Canada has a very attractive economic immigrant program and it is very popular for Russians so, absolutely, Canada has to be on the list of countries that are doing this

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Bank of Canada shouts 'Fire' again

Panicked about Condos now. I agree, but I think the horse may have already bolted.

Fraser Valley numbers out. Big drop in sales YOY 20%. Drop in SFH average (big 7%) and Median but the benchmark comes through with a 2% YOY increase. Gotta love the

MOI 10.5 or so.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Warning Political Post

I don't often post political stuff. I don't care who is in control of the reigns as long as they are ethical and don't mortgage the future for short term gains.

I also expect them to not to lie too much- though that is tough for politicians. 

I lambasted the current Conservatives for being so reckless when they doubled the CMHC debt, and I lauded them when they finally reversed their recklessness. I did my own small part when they wanted to send tax-payer money to the big barons of broadcasting and applauded when (no doubt due to grass-roots disgust) they decided against it and the Aspers had to sell out.

However there have been two things recently that have got my gall. 

One happened a year ago but slipped under my radar until now. It was financial malfeasance. At stake were the big back-room honchoes of the Conservative party who could have been tried/fined or imprisoned for authorising $1.3 Million in excessive advertising spending and breaking Elelction Canada rules. Instead the party was fined $55K.

$55K for a party that has received over $145 Million in the last 7 years. That really sends home the message!

While we are on the topic of advertising...

We have been the recipients of Tory attack ads on the NDP's Mulcair, who apparently has a carbon tax up his sleeve which will bankrupt us if implemented, and what a terrible idea a carbon tax  is anyway.."which we cannot afford".

The irony of running that ad in BC does not seem to have struck their high priced ad executives.

You will remember that Gordon Campbell introduced a carbon tax in late 2008. Good for him! Gordon you will remember is one of Harper's favorites, having been appointed as Canadian High Commissioner to Great Britain and Ireland when he had to resign over the HST debacle.

I guess they think we are so stupid we wont remember.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

All averages down

Once again kudos to Larry.

We are now down 14% from the Feb 2012 peak for SFH.

It is interesting that attached and apartments are holding up better. We are always being told that the 'land' ownership in the SFH makes it more valuable than a box in the sky or a sliver of a piece of land.

That may be true, but as you can see from Larry's graph, the lines have diverged from each other sooo much that this is more than (over) accounted for in the price differential. And what goes up the most has the furthest to fall.

In fact apartments/attached may suit the boomers and no kids buyers more than the hassles and extra expense of owning a SFH. We may see a bump up of SFH listings as boomers try and cash out.